PRINCE RUPERT - A PECULIAR TALE
Vaccination Campaign in Prince Rupert, BC – A Peculiar Tale
Questions to the BC Government
In December 2020 and January 2021, the governments across the world dispensed emergency use authorizations for Covid-19 vaccines. British Columbia, like the rest of Canada, originally behind on vaccine deliveries, made a concerted effort to vaccinate the residents of long-term care facilities (LTC) despite the lack of trial data for this patient cohort. Early vaccination rollout at LTC locations appeared to coincide with several outbreaks followed by abnormally high death counts. Any concerns that such startling statistics could be related to the vaccination campaign were dismissed. Covid-19 was determined to be the only possible cause. LTC vaccination campaigns were followed by mass vaccination clinics at selected locations across the province. The first three such clinics were completed by the middle of March 2021 in Prince Rupert, Haida Gwaii and Upper Skeena Health Units. These vaccination campaigns were followed by abnormally high excess mortality numbers reported in these locations. When questioned, the local government representatives dismissed any concerns with the same explanation – all excess deaths were caused by Covid-19 and no other causes.
And this is even though these numbers exceeded the total March 2021 Covid-19 deaths reported in Northern Health Region by more than 35% against the 2015-2020 averages. This is particularly striking considering that these three locations constituted a mere 7% of the total population served by Northern Health region.
The analysis below includes a more detailed look at the relevant statistics and the chronology of events related to the mass vaccination clinics in Northern Health. The analysis is followed up by questions to the BC Government.
In December 2020 and January 2021, the governments across the world dispensed emergency use authorizations1 for Covid-19 vaccines produced by Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca/Oxford, Sputnik V and many others. Shortly after such approval mass population vaccination campaigns followed. Despite widespread vaccination promotion by the respective governments and unprecedented censorship applied to dissenting views2, many aspects of such rollouts posed immediate questions. One was the matter of approval since such mass administration was undertaken without a usual full approval which is not likely to get granted until 20233. The other key issue were the target groups. As the trials almost exclusively involved healthy and young individuals, with healthy trial participants over 75 accounting for just a small fraction of the participants4.
At the starting point of the rollouts, these questions were not resolved. Given the strident governmental propaganda, these are not likely to be resolved unless held to account by their constituencies. As early as December 2020, reports of high spikes in infections and deaths were noted to coincide with vaccination rollouts in various long-term care facilities across the world. Gibraltar, a tiny British enclave connected by a narrow causeway to Spain, suddenly experienced a massive spike and deaths among its elderly in coincidence with the vaccination rollouts5. Similar reports followed from other jurisdictions including Norway, where after 23 deaths after 25,000 vaccinations among the elderly6, the government went even as far as to pause the vaccination campaign for a few days.
These reports caused much concern and calls for vaccination campaign pauses emerged. However, the governments continued to move forward in their determination to vaccinate as many people as possible. Inordinate mortality spikes in the UK, US and Israel were blamed exclusively on SARS Cov2 as the sole causal agent. Vaccinations were not to be questioned.
British Columbia, like the rest of Canada, originally behind on vaccine deliveries, made a concerted effort to vaccinate the residents (and staff) of long-term care facilities (LTC) despite the lack of trial data for the patient cohort7. While most of these campaigns occurred within the winter respiratory surge, any coincidences had been consistently dismissed by the government on all levels. Without very specific and detailed knowledge of such coincidences, outside observers were limited to following the governmental statistics, including all-cause mortality reports.
In early March 2021, I tuned into a local radio station in BC where they announced that the first town in BC to vaccinate with at least one shot all of its willing citizens would be Prince Rupert. A picturesque fishing town, nestled by the most beautiful Pacific Coast scenery, was not a stranger to me. I have spent a few weeks working there on a couple of occasions. The news of the impending mass vaccination clinic triggered my interest. I decided to check on the all-cause mortality there. It appeared a little high. I began following the local news from the region more intently. The mid-March 2021 vaccination clinic, by accounts of those present, was a festive and crowded affair. The whole town folk and politicians descended on the local sporting facility to partake in the event with unabashed enthusiasm. Many public health rules like social distancing were simply not followed.
As the vaccination clinic was announced to have been completed by the middle of March 2021, I waited for the finalized all-cause March 2021 mortality until the middle of April. This is what I saw when I decided to compile the January-March 2021 results to January-March unadjusted average for the 2015-2020 period. This was alarming, the top three locations in BC were exactly the ones where the government undertook the mass vaccination clinics ahead of everyone else (please be advised that the baseline average 2015-2020 is unadjusted for any demographic changes. These data are best interpreted in comparative terms).
Before we proceed along the specific analysis of the Prince Rupert (and Haida Gwaii, Upper Skeena) situation, let me delve a bit into the all-cause mortality statistics. As all reasonable observers noted at the outset of the lockdown regimes across the world in March 2020, the new all-cause mortality phenomenon was not going to an exclusive domain of those effected by Covid-19, a disease is alleged to be triggered by the novel coronavirus SARS Cov2. Right from the start, it became clear that the officialdom, particularly in jurisdictions with important mortality spikes, was bent to obscure the picture of who died due to Covid-19 and who died due to other causes such as lockdowns. New York, on one bright April day just wrote in 3,700 Covid-19 fatalities with no examination whatsoever8. Others, like Belgium, said outright that any all-cause excess mortality is the exclusive domain of the virus9. Sweden, a notable lockdown resister, did its best to overcount to avoid any libel of hiding the data. As a result, Sweden’s excess mortality in 2020 of approximately 3,500 was handily overshadowed by the official Covid-19 fatality number of 9,77110.
In this cacophony of successive obfuscations, Canada, most notably the province of BC, was an excellent outlier. On the one hand, the local governmental response, headed by the soft-spoken bureaucrat Bonnie Henry, was a massive overreaction as many a place. On the other hand, there was so little Covid-19 to be found in BC that the government inevitably came out to be a much-heralded early winner in the “struggle” against the virus. Profiled by the prestigious New York Times11, Bonnie Henry was basking in the glory of low Covid-19 numbers while another disaster was developing under her nose. While Covid-19 indeed was not at all a problem, all-cause mortality began climbing almost immediately after the lockdown measures were put in place.
The first obvious cause of lockdown mortality was a large spike in drug overdoses12. The government, which has not spoken once as to the lockdown mortality impacts to this day, immediately blamed the events on increased drug toxicity13, which was presumably the result of the closed borders. Even here, the mainstream press could have called the government to account – after all, the closed borders are the result of the lockdowns14. With the press completely under the sway of the government, the government began entrenching the “toxic drugs” propaganda message, even if such spikes were happening south of the border as well.
Through the summer, the situation worsened as it was clear that the excess mortality numbers could not have account just for Covid-19 and drug overdoses. But the government stayed on the message of lockdown mortality denialism (in 2020, Canada ended up with 5.5% excess mortality while “granny-killing” Sweden with 3.5%. While in Sweden, most of the excess mortality related to Covid-19, BC excess morality was predominantly driven by lockdowns). Nearly every day, Adrian Dix and Bonnie Henry issue condolences to the families of the Covid-19 deceased. Not once they have bothered to even mention two thousand of BC residents who most likely died as the result of the lockdown policies in 2020.
As you can see from above, the trend of BC excess mortality exceeding the Covid-19 number remained consistent, although narrowing during November and December 2020. Already narrowing in October 2020, it is probably safe to assume that the lockdown deaths spike that started in March 2020 was partially resolving itself. January 2021 showed virtually no excess mortality despite high Covid-19 numbers. This is probably an artifact of overzealous RT-PCR application, particularly in the particularly sensitive hospital setting. This was somewhat reminiscent of the situation that was developing in the US and the UK when in the second part of December 2020 the numbers began falling. However, this was then when these jurisdictions began mass vaccination campaigns that coincided with increasing total all-cause mortality. In BC, where such a campaign was weeks away, this downtrend materialized, remarkably.
However, as the mass vaccinations at LTC facilities were rolled out in the second part of January 2021, February excess mortality spiked despite the notable reduction in Covid-19 numbers. Sustained through February 2021, this trend began a considerable descent as the LTC vaccination campaigns wrapped up and the province wide effort was unfurled. It is too early to say why this spike in total mortality is taking place, but one thing is clear that it can’t be explained by Covid-19 mortality alone. And this is even before diving down into the issue of what constitutes a Covid-19 fatality and if such is attributable to already vaccinated individuals.
Now, back to Prince Rupert. Prince Rupert mortality is not the most stable metric ranging from 88 in 2018 to 145 in 2020,with 141 deaths being recorded in 201915. Given the notable drug problem in the remote town16, it would be surprising that such a moderate increase was the result of additional drug overdoses. In 2020, the town reported zero Covid-19 fatalities.
On January 16, 2021, just as the first vaccines were arriving in town, an outbreak at the local LTC, metaphorically called Acropolis Manor, an outbreak was declared. While it is hard to find out exactly the details as to how many were affected at this date, one thing appears clear – the authorities rushed the vaccine into the establishment. According some personal testimonials, the vaccines were withheld from the officially infected and sick individuals (up to 5 individuals). According to the local newspaper report, all staff and 33 residents were said to have been vaccinated on January 20, 202117.
Whether all or most of residents and staff were in fact vaccinated on this day or any other day (remaining 5 residents who were alleged to be excluded on January 20, 2021) is an important question. Another important question is whether it is sound medical practice, even if excluding the sick, to undertake a mass vaccination at the place where an outbreak had already been declared34.
While these details were remains in dispute, one thing is clear – what followed was a mass fatality incident whereby 14 out of 33 residents had died by the middle of February 202118. This was the total out of the 16 residents who would be reported as Covid-19 deaths in that facility, and 14 out of the 18 total fatalities related to the outbreaks officially recognized by Northern Health.
This is a key point, while BC government produces a lot of Covid-19 statistics with a large portion of them being entirely meaningless such as daily case numbers, the government remains very cryptic when it comes to Covid-19 attributed deaths in specific locales. Such level of reporting essentially stops at the Health Authority level and that’s where it becomes interesting. According to the governmental dashboard, approximately 78 Covid-19 fatalities were recorded In Northern Health between January 16, 2021 and April 3, 202119,20. At the same time, Prince Rupert, Haida Gwaii and Upper Skeena, all advanced vaccination locations, appear to have at least 48 extra deaths occurring in this period over the normal level. Prince Rupert contributed at least 30 to this number (at least numbers are compared to the historic January-March maximum, while an estimate against averages will have 62 for all three, and 42 for Prince Rupert). And yet, the government representatives unabashedly claim that all excess deaths are related to Covid-19.
With Northern Health serving approximately 288,000 residents, the Prince Rupert share is a mere 4.2% of the total (12,000). Even taking the 18 Covid-19 fatalities already reported in Prince Rupert out of the total of 78, Prince Rupert had to contribute at least 12 more deaths to the remaining total of 60. This is 20% with tiny Haida Gwaii (4,700) and Upper Skeena (4,600) contributing the other 33% to a total of 53%. This seems to be entirely implausible. To arrive at such results, one must assume a record-breaking community Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for these three locations in excess of 4%, which is at least 2 times higher than the worldwide and Canada average21. Taking into consideration that at least 80% of all Canadian Covid-19 fatalities have been linked to LTC22,23, Prince Rupert, Haida Gwaii and Upper Skeena CFR had to be 10 times higher than the Canadian average for community CFR. Also, Assuming the 80% of all Covid-19 fatalities relate LTC outbreaks, approximately 13 out of the remaining 60 Covid-19 deaths in Northern Health would have come on the account of community spread. Is it possible that Prince Rupert alone contributed all 12 community deaths? After factoring Haida Gwaii and Upper Skeena into the equation, the math becomes virtually impossible to fit the governmental narrative24,25.
Now, it gets worse. All three locations set absolute and distinctly high mortality records in March 2021. Understating that at 14 out of the 18 deaths in Prince Rupert related to outbreaks that happened in the first part of February, not more than 4 could have occurred in March 2021. But let’s say they did happen in March 2021. Between February 27, 2021 and April 3, 2021, the entire Northern Health region reported 23 Covid-19 fatalities26. The three locations (Prince Rupert, Haida Gwaii and Upper Skeena) had a total excess mortality within this five-week period (minus four days) of at least 23 (please see table below) and approximately 31 against 2015-2020 average. This is particularly striking as the entire province of BC (population of 5.15 million) recorded less than 100 in excess mortality for the same period. Is it plausible for the government to claim that communities with the population share of 7% (of Northern Health), contributed anywhere from 100% (23 (for 31 days) versus 23 (for the 35 day period)) to 135% (31 out of 23) of all Covid-19 fatalities? Of course, not.
If one considers the excess mortality numbers by month and by location against the 2015-2020 averages, it is easy to see that the number for Prince Rupert, Haida Gwaii and Upper Skeena, while high in January and February, appear to be utterly lopsided in March 2021 for all three.
Alternatively, one can have a look at the March 2021 statistics from the record beating perspective. This is to be expected from time to time, particularly at the time of the official pandemic. In the pandemic, spikes in certain months can alternate with drops in mortality in others. This is what is seen in cases of Nechako, Peace River South and Prince George Health Units. But March 2021 presents much higher mortality even if at least 14 out of 18 official Covid-19 Prince Rupert deaths occurred in the previous month.
Faced with impossible mathematics, I have attempted to raise this issue with the leading BC media outlets such as Vancouver Sun (Vaughn Palmer) and the entire crew at CKNW and Global. All the requests were ignored while at least one member of the CKNW (Jody Vance) blocked me when I asked her to comment on the excess mortality in Prince Rupert on her Twitter feed. I have also attempted to raise this issue with the Prince Rupert council member, Blair Mirau. In response, after an exchange on Twitter, he blocked me28.
The whole story appears to be even more striking when one compares three locations in question to their common neighbor – Terrace. Here, they clearly experienced a winter peak in January 2021. But since then the numbers have proceeded along a predictable seasonal route that is nothing like the other three. Now, one can plead much higher level of the case load to be the reason behind such a stark difference, but again, this argument falls apart as soon as one looks at the recent case count chart reported by a local newspaper33.
My inquiries are not only rooted in the impossible statistics, but in the available science. The vaccine manufacturers’ own trials explicitly informed the public of their exclusion of the frail and elderly from their trial cohorts4. The BC Government knew it back in December 2021, yet they proceeded to administer experimental and not approved vaccines precisely to this group first and foremost. This appears to be completely unethical if not outright criminal.
Also, as postulated by a series of newly emerging studies that were published in February 2021 and contrary to the vaccine manufacturers’ preliminary trial results, the vaccine effectiveness was noted to be negative in the range of 40-60% within the first two weeks after the first shot28. Not known in January of 2021, but certainly available in February 2021, when coupled with the actual outcomes in places like Acropolis Manor, the BC Government had a duty to pause the overall rollout. They didn’t. In fact, by all accounts they did their best to accelerate it, claiming effectiveness of at least 50% after the first dose, omitting to split the period after the first dose into discreet time increments29.
What was worse is that by the end of February 2021, notable American, Canadian and international immunology specialists began voicing their concern about vaccinating individuals who have already cleared an infection or were in the process of clearing such without exhibiting symptoms (this assumes that BC vaccination campaign explicitly excluded symptomatic, officially RT-PCR positive and recognized as potentially exposed)30. The BC Government appeared to be either unaware or dismissive of such concerns. Instead, government representatives insisted that immediately after the first shot, the vaccine recipients were accorded additional and significant protection at the level of at least 50%. Anybody, who is barely aware of the immunological science, would know that this was a very tenuous proposition since a new immunological challenge, which is any vaccination, can only make one more susceptible to other challenges in the short term. This was even noted in the Pfizer FDA Emergency Use Authorization document31,32 with the following language “the Pfizer vaccine found 40% higher “suspected COVID” in the first week after vaccination compared to the control group”.
This document is based on the BC mortality statistics as of the end of March 2021. Once April 2021 statistics become available, the document will be updated.
Questions to the BC Government
1. Were you aware that frail and elderly were not part of the vaccine manufacturers’ trials?
2. Were you aware of early concerns of vaccine administration to the frail in elderly in places like Gibraltar and Norway?
3. If aware, how could you explain your decision to proceed? How did you arrive at this decision?
4. Was the vaccination campaign undertaken in Acropolis Manor on January 20, 2021 include all residents and staff? Or did such a campaign exclude certain residents and staff?
5. Given that at least 14 out of 33 residents died within three weeks of the vaccination date, can you clarify if any of them died after receiving administration of the first shot. Conversely, how many residents died before receiving the first shot? If some of the residents had already been vaccinated by the time of their deaths, have you undertaken any investigation as to possible causes such as ADE (Antibody-Dependent Enhancement) and other potential post-vaccination causal triggers? If not, please explain why not?
6. Depending on your answer to the question 5 and on the basis of available studies from Denmark and the UK, were you aware of the potentially deleterious effects of the vaccine after the administration of the first dose? If so, please explain your rational to proceed with the mass vaccination campaign in Prince Rupert without such a disclosure to the public?
7. When undertaking the decision to proceed with mass vaccination campaign, were you aware of the potential danger posed to those who have either cleared a previous infection or were in the course of dealing with potentially asymptomatic infection (this assumes that all symptomatic individuals were excluded from the mass vaccination clinic)? If not, please explain why not?
8. Please clarify the total number of deaths related to Covid-19 in Prince Rupert, Haida Gwaii and Upper Skeena by month? Please clarify which deaths related to the official declared outbreak locations and which were not?
9. Can please provide the total number of individuals deceased after receiving the first or the second shot (all-cause mortality) in Prince Rupert, Upper Skeena, Haida Gwaii and all other locations under the provincial jurisdiction? And how these numbers compare to those fatalities among unvaccinated individuals?
24) Tweet from Blair Mirau, Councilor, Prince
27) Tweet from Blair Mirau, Councilor, Prince