Province of BC, Excess Mortality – A Peculiar Tale
Questions to the BC Government
Alex Posoukh, 604-307-3733, firstname.lastname@example.org
Worldwide lockdowns came into effect in March 2020. Immediately, various public health measures triggered substantial collateral effects, which included increasing all-cause mortality. Such phenomena were caused by panic, despair, government driven medical rationing, fear, utilization of improper medications, faulty medical procedures, overuse of DNRs and end-of-life therapies in the long-term care facilities, and hunger in the developing nations. Many claimed from the outset that, unless limited or altogether abandoned, these lockdown measures would inflict damages far beyond deaths caused by Covid-19.
It rapidly became clear that governments, particularly in jurisdictions with important mortality spikes, were bent on obscuring exact causes of such mortality. The question of how many died due to Covid-19 and how many died due to other causes became a virtual taboo, as many governments rushed to chalk up any inconvenient statistics as Covid-19. For example, the CDC US and other public health authorities created entirely unprecedented guidelines that allowed for Covid-19 diagnosis to apply whether in presence or absence of matching symptoms. Presence or absence of a positive RT-PCR test was also not a definite requirement.
Not surprisingly, New York, on one bright April 2020 day just wrote in 3,700 Covid-19 fatalities1 with no examination whatsoever. Others, like Belgium2, said outright that any all-cause excess mortality is the exclusive domain of the virus. Sweden, a notable lockdown resister, did its best to overcount Covid-19 fatalities, thus avoiding any accusations of hiding the Covid-19 data. In 2020, Sweden’s excess mortality of approximately 3,200 was handily overshadowed by the official Covid-19 fatality number of 9,7713.
Canada, most notably the province of BC, was an outlier. On the one hand, the local governmental response, headed by the soft-spoken bureaucrat Bonnie Henry, was a massive overreaction as many a place. On the other hand, there was so little Covid-19 to be found in BC that the government inevitably came out to be a much-heralded early “winner” in the “struggle” against the virus. Profiled by the prestigious New York Times4, Bonnie Henry basked in the glory of low Covid-19 numbers early on. In the meanwhile, another disaster was developing under her nose. BC all-cause mortality began climbing almost immediately after the lockdown measures were put in place. Only a fraction related to Covid-19. Between March and June 2020, 174 deaths from Covid-19 were reported while the total excess mortality in this period was over 500.
The first obvious cause of lockdown mortality was a large spike in drug overdoses5. Excess opioid deaths between March and June 2020 amount to approximately 125. The government immediately blamed the events on the increased drug toxicity, which was the result of the closed borders. This myth was advanced by the mainstream media. Instead of connecting border closures aka lockdowns to the increased toxicity, if there ever was one, the mainstream media simply helped to enshrine this lie in the pantheon of truth. Predictably, the “toxic drugs” propaganda message7 was entrenched in the in the public conscience. Parallel spikes happening south of the border6 did little to dispel this myth. The reality of the lockdowns being the primary driver behind the expanded opioid mortality was suppressed.
Through the summer of 2020, the situation worsened as it was clear that the excess mortality didn’t relate to just for Covid-19 and drug overdoses. However, the government, unchallenged by the media, stayed on the message of lockdown mortality denialism. In 2020, BC ended up with 5.5% excess mortality. For comparison, Sweden, endlessly ostracized for its resistance to lockdowns, ended up with 3.5% excess mortality. This means that BC excess mortality was 57% higher than that of Sweden. This completely contradicts the mainstream narrative. While in Sweden, most of the excess mortality related to Covid-19, in BC the excess morality was predominantly driven by the lockdowns8. In BC lockdowns killed at least 4 times as many people as Covid-19. Nearly every day, Adrian Dix and Bonnie Henry issue condolences to the families of the Covid-19 deceased. Not once did they bother to even mention over 1,500 BC residents who died as the result of the lockdown policies in 2020. Recent Statistics Canada report confirmed that most significant increases in the mortality among Canadians occurred in those under 65 years of age, in other words the age category generally unaffected by Covid-19. And yet the government stays silent to this day27.
Another feature stands out in the above chart is the complete absence of excess mortality in the period leading up to March 2020. This is because SARS Cov2 virus appeared to circulate widely much earlier than posited by the official pandemic timeline. This is based on the seropositivity of blood samples taken in the US and in Europe that dated as far back as October 2019; sewer samples taken in Barcelona were dated even further – March 201929. In addition, a highly severe flu season, nicknamed Flunami30, was noted in Australia and New Zealand. If the virus was indeed circulated widely so much earlier than claimed, why was there no excess mortality observed in the months preceding the imposition of lockdowns?
The following chart demonstrates the size of the total excess mortality versus what could be explained by the official Covid-19 numbers (in blue). Considering that the overwhelming number of Covid-19 deaths occurred in the nursing homes, the real picture is probably even more skewed. This is due to the assumption that a large portion of nursing home deaths would have occurred anyway. In other words, only a fraction of the nursing home Covid-19 deaths constitutes excess deaths. This assumption is based on the median life expectancy in the nursing homes barely extending past 2 years20.
As you can see from above, the trend of BC excess mortality exceeding the Covid-19 number remained consistent throughout the summer of 2020 until the fall respiratory season. In the course of this period the number of tests performed grew substantially throughout (please see the graph below)19. Much more aggressive testing policy appears to have led to reattribution of excess mortality to Covid-19 away from other causes starting in October 2020. Between March and October 2020, the total excess mortality in BC amounted to approximately 1,300 while Covid-19 deaths reached 264. As the “second” seasonal wave began gathering steam, reattribution to Covid-19 grew substantially. In fact, between November 2020 and January 2021, the total excess mortality amounted to approximately 940 while the total Covid-19 mortality for the same period was reported to be 1,106. Particularly notable was the month of January 2021, when the total access mortality was just 42 while the Covid-19 mortality reached 381. This appears to echo with the recent findings of Dr. Ioannidis where he stated “COVID-19 deaths were apparently under-counted early in the pandemic and continue to be undercounted in several countries, especially in Africa, while over-counting probably currently exists for several other countries, especially those with intensive testing and high sensitization and/or incentives for COVID-19 diagnoses”28.
Starting in the fall of 2020, excess mortality in BC followed a typical respiratory season pattern. By the end of January 2021, BC excess mortality was primed for a mortality “trough” as it was observed in other jurisdictions such as the UK and Sweden. In these jurisdictions lower than normal mortality followed epidemiological spikes. However, February 2021 delivered a surprise. Excess morality went up once again. The vaccination campaign among the frontline staff and LTC residents was the only new variable entering into the paradigm of the public health. While volunteer vaccinations among the frontline staff might have been indicated by the results of the company trials, the vaccinations among the elderly had no basis as this cohort was virtually excluded from the trials.
On January 16, 2021, just as the first vaccines were arriving in Prince Rupert BC, at the local LTC, metaphorically called Acropolis Manor, an outbreak was declared. While it is hard to judge the full extent of the outbreak at this date, one thing appears to be clear – the authorities rushed the vaccine into the establishment. According to personal testimonials, the vaccines were withheld from the officially infected and sick individuals (up to 5 individuals among LTC residents). However, according to the local newspaper report, all staff and 33 residents were said to have been vaccinated on January 20, 202125.
A mass fatality incident followed, whereby 14 out of 33 residents had died by the middle of February 202126. This was the total out of the 16 residents who would be reported as Covid-19 deaths in the facility. This was just one of many coincidental events that took place between the end of January and early March 2021.
In the first part of March 2021, the government of BC began a mass vaccination campaign. Northern Health, or more precisely the localities of Upper Skeena, Haida Gwaii and Prince Rupert, were chosen to be advanced vaccination sites, where instead of gradual mass vaccination ramp-up, the entire towns would be vaccinated with just a few days. Following such vaccination campaigns, extremely high excess all-cause mortality was observed. For example, the vaccination campaign in Prince Rupert was completed by March 18, 2021 with 85% of total eligible residents receiving the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine27. By the end of March 2021 Prince Rupert total mortality was reported to be 29. This was 100-150% higher than average mortality that is observed at this time of the year. Upper Skeena and Haida Gwaii exhibited similar mortality spikes. Given the official Covid-19 mortality numbers published by the Northern Health for this period, less than 10% of these excess deaths can be explained by Covid-19 mortality. To date, the BC government has not commented on the issue.
Unlike rapid vaccination clinics in the Northern Health, the rest of BC began vaccinating the general population in a gradual and age-stratified manner in March 2021. As a result, the all-cause mortality signals on the provincewide basis have been more spread out. However, as the mass vaccination campaign gathered steam so did the Covid-19 case, hospitalization, and death numbers. This was called a “third” wave. Interestingly, this was entirely predictable as the post-first dose susceptibility to Covid-19 was already described in February 2021 by at least three different UK and Danish studies12. These studies posited negative 40-60% vaccine effectiveness in the initial, 10-14-day post first vaccination, period.
Such susceptibility was completely omitted from the governmental communications to the public. I personally came across at least 5 local cases whereby recently vaccinated individuals came down with severe Covid-19 that necessitated general hospitalizations, ranging from general to ICU admissions. One of these individuals died and was coded Covid-19. In addition to the possibility of vaccine-induced deaths, vaccinal side-effects10 included organ failures, heart attacks, strokes and other outcomes most likely caused by blood clotting and other triggers as described by Dr. Hoffe of Lytton, BC11.
One of my acquaintances received her first injection in the middle of April 2021. Within 24-hours she developed severe Covid-19 symptoms. As her condition worsened, she ended up spending 10 days in the ICU. Upon her returning from the hospital, she asked her physician as to whether the vaccination could have been the reason for her illness. Such a suggestion was dismissed out of hand, as a simple coincidence was cited. Another acquaintance developed a sudden onset of renal failure within 72 hours of receiving her second AstraZeneca injection. She had never experienced this condition before. Any connection between her illness and the vaccination was downplayed by the attending physician.
As of now, numerous studies have noted cases spikes coincidental with mass vaccine rollouts. Such coincidences appear to confirm that the “third” unseasonal wave in British Columbia and elsewhere in Canada was triggered by the mass vaccination rollout. My earlier research on the targeted vaccinations clinics in Northern Health indicate that February 2021 excess mortality was not an unexplainable blip. Moreover, it is clear that at least a portion of the cases coded Covid-19 related to the mass administration after the first dose. This was anecdotally confirmed by several medical professionals in the media13. However, it is impossible to quantify the incidence of the post-vaccination Covid-19 as the government has not released appropriate statistics. As a result, excluding all official Covid-19 mortality from all-cause mortality impacts is required to remain on the conservative side of estimates. To offset this shortcoming, I consider it reasonable to count all unexplained (Covid-19, Opioid and other explainable causes excluded) excess mortality as related to the mass vaccination campaign.
Here is a more detailed picture of various all-cause mortality components. The comparison of Mar–Jun 2020 versus Mar-Jun 2021 demonstrates a much higher total excess and unexplained excess morality in 2021 despite more strict public health measures in 2020. The only other variable between the two time periods is the mass vaccination rollout.
From the above, I don’t think that it is difficult to recognize a pattern. First, February 2021 shows the concerted effort to vaccinate the front-line staff and LTC residents. In March 2021, as the mass vaccination campaign began, the effects are delayed due to the gradual manner of the rollout and the 1-4-week window between the vaccinations and related outcomes. Only in the locations associated with the rapid clinics as in Prince Rupert, one could see almost immediate mortality spikes. For the rest of the province, the unexplained excess mortality excess effect gradually increased from March to May 2021. At the end of May 2021, the province began administering second doses. As noted back in the company trials of Pfizer and Moderna, the side-effects after the second shot were expected to be more severe22. These findings appear to be confirmed by the actual BC data, as unexplained excess mortality in the province jumped to the historically high 10% in June 2021. How was it calculated as the total provincial mortality in June 2021 was confounded by the historic heat wave that took place during the last week of the month? The number was based on the data available on June 28, 2021. As the government reporting is usually 8-10 days behind the reporting date, I assumed, to be conservative, that the June 28 data reflected a completed set for June 20, 2021. On that date the reported number was 2,244. Extrapolating the daily rate observed in the first 20 days of the month, the total provincial mortality in June 2021 was 3,366. All additional deaths above this number are assumed to be caused by the heat wave. Given the latest provincial data published on July 26, 2021, the heat wave toll amounted to approximately 550 cases. This is significantly lower than the official number of over 800 heat wave deaths23. Perhaps, a clarification from the authorities might be in order.
For the province, assuming the 1-4-week general delay between vaccinations and related effects, the excess mortality outcomes captured by the middle of July 2021 roughly correspond to 6,000,000 doses given. This works out to one fatality per 6,500 injections. This is alarming to say the least as the government and related experts are still claiming “extremely rare” clotting events which could happen on the order of one per 60,000 to 600,00015 injections. This is patently not true.
These calculations are also confirmed by the excess mortality reports among younger age groups in the US, where excess mortality for those under 65 in 2021 has been trending even above 2020 when the lockdown regimes were much stricter. In Israel, the unexplained excess mortality among 20–29-year-old subjects amounted to approximately 40 per 500,000 injections administered (please see chart below). This works out to one fatality per 12,500 injections. Given that the likelihood of fatal outcomes decreases with age, such a rate of vaccine fatalities appears in line with the averaged indicators for BC when we compare implied vaccine fatality rate in February (LTC) versus March through July (general population). This was confirmed by the document published by the Israel’s Committee on Covid Ethics, which postulated one fatality per 5,000 injections among the entire population and one fatality per 13,000 among those between 20 and 49 years of age.24 Also, significant additional excess mortality was noted for those under 44 years of age in the US. Having been already hammered by the lockdowns, the all-cause mortality in this group grew even above the 2020 levels despite the 2021 restrictions being significantly less severe if not non-existent as in the states of Florida and South Dakota.
The recent significant increases in the unexplained excess mortality indicators seem to trend the mass vaccine rollouts in British Columbia and other parts of Canada. This is a clear indication that the BC government has an obligation to answer the following questions.
In conclusion, if one attributes all unexplained excess mortality in BC incurred from February to July 2021 to the vaccine rollout, an implied vaccine fatality rate of 0.015% is calculated. Given the high unlikelihood of all officially declared Covid-19 deaths contributing to the excess deaths at the rate of 100%, the real vaccine fatality rate could be even as high as 0.02%. However, the continual impact of the misguided and harmful public health policies, it is reasonable to assume that some of the excess deaths are caused by factors other than vaccines. While this number is largely unknown, the high degree of association between vaccine doses administered and excess mortality patterns leads one to conclude that vaccine fatality rate in BC to be at least 0.01% or 1 fatality per 10,000 injections. This means that at least 600 residents of British Columbia have died as of the end of July 2021 due to
As the governments across the world are preparing to roll out the third dose, particularly among the most susceptible, the need to continue surveilling excess mortality patterns is of essence. This is particularly important given the superficial nature of the relevant manufacturers’ trials. Already riddled with a great deal of potential issues such as badly understood exclusionary periods in the original trials, the third dose trials are even more opaque and are not trust inspiring.
Questions to the BC Government
1. Why has the government not investigated the excess mortality in the province and its correlation with public health measures?
2. Were you aware that frail and elderly were not part of the vaccine manufacturers’ trials?
3. Were you aware of early concerns of vaccine administration to the frail in elderly in places like Gibraltar and Norway?
4. If aware, how could you explain your decision to proceed? How did you arrive at this decision?
5. Given that at least 14 out of 33 residents at Acropolis Manor died within three weeks of the vaccination date, can you clarify if any of them died after receiving administration of the first shot. Conversely, how many residents died before receiving the first shot? If some of the residents had already been vaccinated by the time of their deaths, have you undertaken any investigation as to possible causes such as ADE (Antibody-Dependent Enhancement) and other potential post-vaccination causal triggers? If not, please explain why not?
6. Depending on your answer to the question 5 and based on available studies from Denmark and the UK, were you aware of the potentially deleterious effects of the vaccine after the administration of the first dose? If so, please explain your rational to proceed with the mass vaccination campaign in Prince Rupert and elsewhere in the province without such a disclosure to the public?
7. Can please provide the total number of individuals deceased within 28 days of the administration of the first or the second dose?
8. Why has the government not provided a cost-benefit analysis of its public health measures to date?
9. Can the government provide scientific proof that the opioid spikes in BC have been caused not by the lockdowns due to expanded drug use but by the locality-specific factors such as sudden emergence of drugs with incrementally significant toxicity?
10. Can the government advise of any changes in the Covid-19 coding guidelines given considerably higher levels of testing in the second part of 2020 and in 2021 as compared to the first 6 months of the public health measures?
11. Is the government aware of the total reported Covid-19 vaccine fatalities in the US (VAERS), UA (Eudravigilence)? As such, in total have already amounted to more than 20,000, why is the government yet to pause its mass vaccination campaign pending further investigation.
12. Can the government explain the rapidly increasing unexplained excess mortality trends that coincide with the mass vaccine rollouts?
27) https://bc.ctvnews.ca/85-of-prince-rupert-residents-vaccinated-as-b-c-adds-tourism-workers-to-clinic-staff-1.5360799 https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/overdoses-alcohol-related-deaths-increased-in-canadians-under-65-during-pandemic-statcan-1.5506375