Province of BC, Excess Mortality – A Peculiar Tale
Questions to the BC Government
Alex Posoukh, 604-307-3733, posoukh@yahoo.com
Worldwide lockdowns came into effect in March
2020. Immediately, various public health measures triggered substantial collateral
effects, which included increasing all-cause mortality. Such phenomena were caused
by panic, despair, government driven medical rationing, fear, utilization of
improper medications, faulty medical procedures, overuse of DNRs and
end-of-life therapies in the long-term care facilities, and hunger in the developing
nations. Many claimed from the outset that, unless limited or altogether abandoned,
these lockdown measures would inflict damages far beyond deaths caused by
Covid-19.
It
rapidly became clear that governments, particularly in jurisdictions with
important mortality spikes, were bent on obscuring exact causes of such
mortality. The question of how many died due to Covid-19 and how many died due
to other causes became a virtual taboo, as many governments rushed to chalk off
any inconvenient statistics as Covid-19. For example, the CDC US and other
public health authorities created entirely unprecedented guidelines that
allowed for Covid-19 diagnosis to apply whether in presence or absence of
matching symptoms. Presence of absence of a positive RT-PCR test was also not a
definite requirement.
Not
surprisingly, New York, on one bright April 2020 day just wrote in 3,700
Covid-19 fatalities1 with no examination whatsoever. Others, like
Belgium2, said outright that any all-cause excess mortality is the
exclusive domain of the virus. Sweden, a notable lockdown resister, did its
best to overcount Covid-19 fatalities, thus avoid any accusations of hiding the
Covid-19 data. In 2020, Sweden’s excess mortality of approximately 3,200 was
handily overshadowed by the official Covid-19 fatality number of 9,7713.
Canada,
most notably the province of BC, was an outlier. On the one hand, the local governmental
response, headed by the soft-spoken bureaucrat Bonnie Henry, was a massive
overreaction as many a place. On the other hand, there was so little Covid-19
to be found in BC that the government inevitably came out to be a much-heralded
early “winner” in the “struggle” against the virus. Profiled by the prestigious New York Times4,
Bonnie Henry basked in the glory of low Covid-19 numbers early on. In the
meanwhile, another disaster was developing under her nose. BC all-cause
mortality began climbing almost immediately after the lockdown measures were
put in place. Only a fraction related to Covid-19. Between March and June 2020,
174 deaths from Covid-19 were reported while the total excess mortality in this
period was over 500.
The
first obvious cause of lockdown mortality was a large spike in drug overdoses5.
Excess opioid deaths between March and June 2020 amount to approximately 125. The
government immediately blamed the events on the increased drug toxicity,
which was the result of the closed borders. This myth was advanced by the
mainstream media. Instead of connecting border closures aka lockdowns to the
increased toxicity, if there ever was one, the mainstream media simply helped to
enshrine this lie in the pantheon of truth. Predictably, the “toxic drugs”
propaganda message7 was entrenched in the in the public conscience. Parallel spikes happening south of the border6
did little to dispel this myth. The reality of the lockdowns being the primary
driver behind the expanded opioid mortality was suppressed.
Through
the summer 2020, the situation worsened as it was clear that the excess
mortality didn’t relate to just for Covid-19 and drug overdoses. However, the
government, unchallenged by the media, stayed on the message of lockdown
mortality denialism. In 2020, BC ended up with 5.5% excess mortality. For
comparison, Sweden, endlessly ostracized for its resistance to lockdowns, ended
up with 3.5% excess mortality. This means that BC excess mortality was 57%
higher than that of Sweden. This completely contradicts the mainstream
narrative. While in Sweden, most of the
excess mortality related to Covid-19, in BC the excess morality was
predominantly driven by the lockdowns8. In BC lockdowns killed at
least 4 times as many people as Covid-19. Nearly every day, Adrian Dix and
Bonnie Henry issue condolences to the families of the Covid-19 deceased Not
once they bothered to even mention over 1,500 BC residents who died as the
result of the lockdown policies in 2020. Recent Statistics Canada report
confirmed that most significant increases in the mortality among Canadians
occurred in those under 65 years of age, in other words the age category
generally unaffected by Covid-19. And yet the government stays silent to this
day27.
The following chart demonstrate the size of the total excess mortality versus what could be explained by the official Covid-19 numbers (in blue). Considering that the overwhelming number of Covid-19 deaths occurred in the nursing homes, the real picture is probably even more skewed. This is due to the assumption that a large portion of nursing home deaths would have occurred anyway. In other words, only a fraction of the nursing home Covid-19 deaths constitutes excess deaths. This assumption is based on the median life expectancy in the nursing homes barely extending past 2 years20.
As you can see from above, the trend of BC excess mortality exceeding the Covid-19 number remained consistent throughout the summer of 2020 until the fall respiratory season. In the course of this period the number of tests performed grew substantially throughout (please see the graph below19). Much more aggressive testing policy appears to have led to reattribution of excess mortality to Covid-19 away from other causes starting in October 2020. Between March and October 2020, the total excess mortality in BC amounted to approximately 1,300 while Covid-19 deaths reached 264. As the “second” seasonal wave began gathering steam, reattribution to Covid-19 grew substantially. In fact, between November 2020 and January 2021, the total excess mortality amounted to approximately 940 while the total Covid-19 mortality for the same period was reported to be 1,106. Particularly notable was the month of January 2021, when the total access mortality was just 42 while the Covid-19 mortality reached 381.
Starting in the fall of 2020, excess mortality in BC followed a typical respiratory season pattern. By the end of January 2021, BC excess mortality was primed for a mortality “trough” as it was observed in other jurisdictions such as the UK and Sweden. In these jurisdictions lower than normal mortality followed epidemiological spikes. However, February 2021 delivered a surprise. Excess morality went up once again. The vaccination campaign among the frontline staff and LTC residents was the only new variable entered into the paradigm of the public health. While volunteer vaccinations among the frontline staff might have been indicated by the results of the company trials, the vaccinations among the elderly had no basis as this cohort was virtually excluded from the trials.
On
January 16, 2021, just as the first vaccines were arriving in Prince Rupert BC,
an outbreak at the local LTC, metaphorically called Acropolis Manor, an
outbreak was declared. While it is hard to judge the full extent of the
outbreak at this date, one thing appears to be clear – the authorities rushed
the vaccine into the establishment. According to personal testimonials, the
vaccines were withheld from the officially infected and sick individuals (up to
5 individuals among LTC residents). However, according to the local newspaper
report, all staff and 33 residents were said to have been vaccinated on January
20, 202125.
A
mass fatality incident followed, whereby 14 out of 33 residents had died by the
middle of February 202126. This was the total out of the 16
residents who would be reported as Covid-19 deaths in the facility. This was
just one of many coincidental events that took place between the end of January
and early March 2021.
In
the first part of March 2021, the government of BC began mass vaccination
campaign. Northern Health, or more precisely the localities of Upper Skeen,
Haida Gwaii and Prince Rupert, were chosen to be advanced vaccination sites,
where instead of gradual mass vaccination ramp-up, the entire towns would be
vaccinated with just a few days. Following such vaccination campaigns,
extremely high excess all-cause mortality was observed. For example, the
vaccination campaign in Prince Rupert was completed by March 18, 2021 with 85%
of total eligible residents receiving the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine27.
By the end of March 2021 Prince Rupert total mortality was reported to be 29.
This was 100-150% higher than average mortality that is observed at this time
of the year. Upper Skeena and Haida Gwaii exhibited similar mortality spikes.
Given the official Covid-19 mortality numbers published by the Northern Health
for this period, less than 10% of these excess deaths can by explained by
Covid-19 mortality. To date, BC government has not commented on the issue.
Unlike
rapid vaccination clinics in the Northern Health, the rest of BC began
vaccinating the general population in a gradual and age-stratified manner in March
2021. As a result, the all-cause mortality signals on the provincewide basis
have been more spread out. However, as the mass vaccination campaign gathered
steam so did the Covid-19 case, hospitalization, and death numbers. This was
called a “third” wave. Interestingly, this was entirely predictable as the post-first
dose susceptibility to Covid-19 was already described in February 2021 by at
least three different UK and Danish studies12. These studies posited
negative 40-60% vaccine effectiveness in the initial, 10-14-day post first vaccination,
period.
Such
susceptibility was completely omitted from the governmental communications to
the public. I personally came across at least 5 local cases whereby recently
vaccinated individuals came down with severe Covid-19 that necessitated general
hospitalizations, ranging from general to ICU admissions. One of these
individuals died and was coded Covid-19.
In addition to the possibility of vaccine-induced deaths, vaccinal side-effects10
included organ failures, heart attacks, strokes and other outcomes most likely
caused by blood clotting and other triggers as described by Dr. Hoffe of Lytton
BC11.
One
of my acquaintances received her first injection in the middle of April 2021.
Within 24-hours she developed severe Covid-19 symptoms. As her condition
worsened, she ended up spending 10 days in the ICU. Upon her returning from the
hospital, she asked her physician as to whether the vaccination could have been
the reason for her illness. Such a suggestion was dismissed out of hand, as a simple
coincidence was cited. Another acquaintance developed a sudden onset of renal
failure within 72 hours of receiving her second AstraZeneca injection. She had
never experienced this condition before. Any connection between her illness and
the vaccination was downplayed by the attending physician.
As of now, numerous studies have noted cases spikes
coincidental with mass vaccine rollouts. Such coincidences appear to confirm
that the “third” unseasonal wave in British Columbia and elsewhere in Canada was
triggered by the mass vaccination rollout. My earlier research on the targeted
vaccinations clinics in Northern Health indicate that February 2021 excess
mortality was not an unexplainable blip. Moreover, it is clear that at least a
portion of the cases coded Covid-19 related to the mass administration after
the first dose. This was anecdotally confirmed by several medical professionals
in the media13. However, it
is impossible to quantify the incidence of the post-vaccination Covid-19 as the
government has not released appropriate statistics. As a result, excluding all
official Covid-19 mortality from all-cause mortality impacts is required to
remain on the conservative side of estimates. To offset this shortcoming, I
consider it reasonable to count all unexplained (Covid-19, Opioid and other
explainable causes excluded) excess mortality as related to the mass
vaccination campaign.
Here is a more detailed picture of various all-cause mortality components. The comparison of Mar–Jun 2020 versus Mar-Jun 2021 demonstrates much higher total excess and unexplained excess morality in 2021 despite more strict public health measures in 2020. The only other variable between the two time periods is the mass vaccination rollout.
From the above, I don’t think that it is
difficult to recognize a pattern. First, February 2021 shows the concerted
effort to vaccinate the front-line staff and LTC residents. In March 2021, as
the mass vaccination campaign began, the effects are delayed due to the gradual
manner of the rollout and the 1-4-week window between the vaccinations and
related outcomes. Only in the locations associated with the rapid clinics as in
Prince Rupert, one could see almost immediate mortality spikes. For the rest of
the province, the unexplained excess mortality excess effect gradually increased
from March to May 2021. At the end of May 2021, the province began
administering second doses. As noted back in the company trials of Pfizer and
Moderna, the side-effects after the second shot were expected to be more severe22.
These findings appear to be confirmed by the actual BC data, as unexplained
excess mortality in the province jumped to the historically high 10% in June
2021. How was it calculated as the total provincial mortality in June 2021 was
confounded by the historic heat wave that took place during the last week of
the month? The number was based on the data available on June 28, 2021. As the
government reporting is usually 8-10 days behind the reporting date, I assumed,
to be conservative, that the June 28 data reflected a completed set for June
20, 2021. On that date the reported number was 2,244. Extrapolating daily rate
observed in the first 20 days of the month, the total provincial mortality in
June 2021 weas 3,366. All additional deaths above this number are assumed to relate
to the heat wave. Given the latest provincial data published on July 26, 2021,
the heat wave toll amounted to approximately 516 cases. This is significantly
lower than the official number of over 800 heat wave deaths23.
Perhaps, a clarification from the authorities might be in order.
For
the province, assuming the 1-4-week general delay between vaccinations and
related effects, the excess mortality outcomes captured by the end of June 2021
roughly correspond to 5,000,000 doses given. This works out to one fatality per
9,000 injections. This is alarming to
say the least as the government and related experts are still claiming
“extremely rare” clotting events which could happen on the order of one per
60,000 to 600,00015 injections. This is patently not true.
These
calculations are also confirmed by the excess mortality reports among younger
age groups in the US, where excess mortality for those under 65 in 2021 has
been trending even above 2020 when the lockdown regimes were much stricter. In
Scotland, the government reported that within a 4-week period after the 1st
and 2nd injections, the total mortality in Scotland amounted to
approximately 5,60021. Given that in any 4-week period,
approximately 4,600-4,800 Scots die, the unexplained vaccine related mortality
amounts to approximately 800-1,000 cases. Based on the administration of
approximately 7,000,000 doses, the vaccine fatality rate in Scotland is
approximately one death per 7,000 – 8,800 injections. In Israel, the
unexplained excess mortality among 20–29-year-old subjects amounted to
approximately 40 per 500,000 injections administered (please see chart below).
This works out to one fatality per 12,500 injections. Given that the likelihood
of fatal outcomes decreases with age, such a rate of vaccine fatalities appears
in line with the averaged indicators for BC and Scotland. This was confirmed by
the document published by the Israel’s Committee on Covid Ethics, which
postulated one fatality per 5,000 injections among the entire population and
one fatality per 13,000 among those between 20 and 49 years of age.24
The recent significant increases in the unexplained excess mortality indicators seem to trend the mass vaccine rollouts in British Columbia and other parts of Canada. This is a clear indication that the BC government has an obligation to answer the following questions.
P.S. On August 2, 2021 BC Government has posted
all-cause mortality for July 2021 at 2,885. Given that all-cause mortality
reporting is usually delayed between 8 and 10 days, it appears reasonable to
project all-cause mortality in July 2021 to reach approximately 3,480. Total
Covid-19 mortality for July 2021 is approximately 15 while the excess opioid
deaths are expected to be in line with June 2021 at 30. These leave approximately
335 or 11.5% unexplained excess deaths. This is even higher than the record
setting June 2021.
Questions to the BC Government
1. Why has the government not investigated the
excess mortality in the province and its correlation with public health
measures?
2. Were you aware that frail and elderly were not
part of the vaccine manufacturers’ trials?
3. Were you aware of early concerns of vaccine
administration to the frail in elderly in places like Gibraltar and Norway?
4. If aware, how could you explain your decision
to proceed? How did you arrive at this decision?
5. Given that at least 14 out of 33 residents at
Acropolis Manor died within three weeks of the vaccination date, can you
clarify if any of them died after receiving administration of the first shot.
Conversely, how many residents died before receiving the first shot? If some of
the residents had already been vaccinated by the time of their deaths, have you
undertaken any investigation as to possible causes such as ADE
(Antibody-Dependent Enhancement) and other potential post-vaccination causal
triggers? If not, please explain why not?
6. Depending on your answer to the question 5 and
based on available studies from Denmark and the UK, were you aware of the
potentially deleterious effects of the vaccine after the administration of the
first dose? If so, please explain your rational to proceed with the mass
vaccination campaign in Prince Rupert and elsewhere in the province without
such a disclosure to the public?
7. Can please provide the total number of
individuals deceased within 28 days of the administration of the first or the
second dose?
8. Why has the government not provided a
cost-benefit analysis of its public health measures to date?
9. Can the government provide scientific proof
that the opioid spikes in BC have been caused not by the lockdowns due to
expanded drug use but by the locality-specific factors such as sudden emergence
of drugs with incrementally significant toxicity?
10. Can the government advise of any changes in the
Covid-19 coding guidelines given considerably higher levels of testing in the
second part of 2020 and in 2021 as compared to the first 6 months of the public
health measures?
11. Is the government aware of the total reported
Covid-19 vaccine fatalities in the US (VAERS), UA (Eudravigilence)? As such, in
total have already amounted to more than 20,000, why is the government yet to
pause its mass vaccination campaign pending further investigation.
12. Can the government explain the rapidly
increasing unexplained excess mortality trends that coincide with the mass
vaccine rollouts?
Bibliography:
2) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/world/canada/bonnie-henry-british-columbia-coronavirus.html
3)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105753/cumulative-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden/
4) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/world/canada/bonnie-henry-british-columbia-coronavirus.html
8) https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/life-events/statistics-reports/deaths
9) https://alexposoukh.blogspot.com/2021/05/vaccination-campaign-in-prince-rupert.html?m=1
12) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.08.21252200v1.full.pdf
13) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.08.21252200v1.full.pdf
17) https://yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/
19) http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data#vaccine
20) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6143238/
25) https://www.bclocalnews.com/news/acropolis-residents-and-staff-to-receive-covid-19-vaccine/
27) https://bc.ctvnews.ca/85-of-prince-rupert-residents-vaccinated-as-b-c-adds-tourism-workers-to-clinic-staff-1.5360799 https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/overdoses-alcohol-related-deaths-increased-in-canadians-under-65-during-pandemic-statcan-1.5506375
Thank you for this!
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